The Future Of Computers

[braincell]

This is something I have been worried about for a while. Initially, desktop computers were slow but in order to get people to buy new ones, they got faster and faster but now we see people are more interested in far slower pad computers, cell phones and laptops. Computers are getting slower. For most people, this does not matter but for power users, this should be a worry. I predict a drastic slowdown in the pace of computer speed progress in the next 10 years.

Also I see a growing number of musicians using free software. Although the software they use is far inferior, they don't think so and they take great pride in the fact that it didn't cost them anything.

At least I can say that computers and software have reached a remarkable mature state so perhaps it's a good time for a lull.

[scopus]

yes computer speed doesnt seem to be something of much focus atm. Jumps used to be huge with every new technology, but jump from like 1366 to sandybridge? actually a downgrade in a couple ways. I think this is because the technology of the computers is about where the technology of mainstream media is. For example you dont need the fastest computer out with the best graphics card anymore to play the most technology advanced computer games. This used to be the case, where because people were experiencing huge amounts of lag and low quality, they werent able to experience the games full potential so it was on constintly on peoples minds the need for upgrade. And most people dont do much more than basic stuff on computers like watch movies, internet... Power users like us or video editing...where more power can still be of great benefit is a much much smaller community so much less demand so less supply

[JoPo]

I'm not sure ! Go and say so to gamers ! They want 3D, always better video ... etc ...

And scientists don't run there stupid climate simulators within a cell phone. But it's true that whatever the computer power is, they get exactly the same result !

I don't see any computer getting slower, they may get smaller and so slower. But today's small laptops are faster than first small laptops, today's cell phones are faster than 2 years ago phones.

[Eanna]

Aaah, this ole nugget.

It's true, the amount of processing power offered by modern computers feels 'just right' for Audio Production requirements, more than it ever has. Guess that would be true when 'render/bounce to audio' option is removed from DAWs.

But new developments in hardware are required by the gaming fraternity, video production, medical and scientific ventures, AI, ...

Future directions in hardware will probably mean cheaper systems for the mass market, smaller installation sizes, more efficient computers, new ways to interface with a computer / ergonomics, integration of computing into your home, ... I daren't guess!
Theoretical limits to electron behaviour at the current small scales resulting in the quantum effect were mooted as much as ten years ago. At that time, I started to believe that the current silicon-based tech was nearing a paradigm closure. I was wrong!
Maybe quantum computing will become viable in years to come, leading to computing expressive power unheard of today (boolean algebra may not be the only game in town). Again, I daren't guess!

Lets put it this way, you're not the first person to think along these lines.
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
(from http://www.rinkworks.com/said/predictions.shtml)

[scopus]

I'm not sure ! Go and say so to gamers ! They want 3D, always better video ... etc ...

And scientists don't run there stupid climate simulators within a cell phone. But it's true that whatever the computer power is, they get exactly the same result !

I don't see any computer getting slower, they may get smaller and so slower. But today's small laptops are faster than first small laptops, today's cell phones are faster than 2 years ago phones.

yes there will always be the enthusiast, but im talking about most people, and i used to be one of these. like example i have a graphics card thats about 5 years old and can play the latest games at about max settings without lag. Things like this was unheard of a few years ago, computer technology will always get better no doubt, but think op talking about rate in improvement of the technology , atm seems slower than in the past but future might be different, has to do with what kind of new technologies arise i guess

[braincell]

At the moment PC gaming is faster for many people but there will be new consoles. Gaming is the only thing holding down the price of fast computers. There not many 3D titles though. That didn't really catch on.

[astroman]

while technology was getting 'better' over those years, people's abilities to deal with it decreased ...
(in a general context... not related to some individuals)
maybe we'll live to see the reign of the machines ... if we're not careful
or some super-smart dudes controlling all the sh*t
go figure: cut off Apple, Adobe, M$, Oracle, SAP, Google, eBay, Amazon...
now what's left ?

and regarding those lame plate thingies...
you really should see this multitrack a handful of channels from 2 or 3 different apps plus live input
with preset switching on the fly while recording (glitchfree) and such stuff

cheers, Tom

[dante]

Haven't you noticed one other factor ? EG the sheer NUMBER of different computers you need to get through a typical working day.

Here's my day :

Get up go to work use i7 desktop there until called onto a different site, to which I take work laptop and use Navigon GPS to get there. Come home, check out the 'Z' on home i5 laptop and do some music on desktop WinXP DAW. Play Doom3 on XBOX, watch 'Terminator: Sarah Conner Chronicles' on iPad2 then put iPhone on charger and go to sleep.

LOL !

[siriusbliss]

My day starts with either iPad LTE or iPad mini to check email in the morning before heading into work where I use two DESKTOP Linux machines (Mac Pros) running a multitude of custom CAD progs, and then back at home fire up my ADK i7 Scope system.

I can predict that desktops will be around for a while since there are still plenty of high end users ranging from animators to science that still need the extra horsepower.

Other than that I have no comment on what Apple may or may not be working on

G

[dante]

I can predict that desktops will be around for a while since there are still plenty of high end users ranging from animators to science that still need the extra horsepower.

Other than that I have no comment on what Apple may or may not be working on

G

A high powered desktop for animators and scientists

[Bud Weiser]

Here's my day :

... Play Doom3 on XBOX, watch 'Terminator: Sarah Conner Chronicles' on iPad2 then put iPhone on charger and go to sleep.

LOL !

I´d say you could ditch these tasks w/ ease

Bud

[jksuperstar]

Most of the developing world is still getting desktops. Since there is no cloud or solid networks yet. So, your issue is a 1s world problem

But, servers and work stations will be needed; so just look at the server end, and you'll see far more stability and performance, anyway.

[Bud Weiser]

Other than that I have no comment on what Apple may or may not be working on

G

They try to establish their own processors on their own platform,- that´s all.
If that will be fast enough and works ... (?)

IMO, the iPad is a cool toy even there are better tablet toys from Samsung.
Since I´ve seen the Anymoog and PPG Wave apps I´m interested and if I´d buy a Roland Integra-7 today, the i-Pad would have been a must for editing and recall/organize patches quickly.
Who knows what SCOPE 6 offers when going OSX ?

For me, it´s easy jumping across platforms,- I don´t care about Win or Mac.
I use what´s best for me.

It´s just only the beginning and maybe desktops become obsolete next furture.
If yes,- that would be a great evolution, but for the time being, it isn´t.
I´ll need all the extra horse-power for sure until it changes.

Bud

[astroman]

... Play Doom3 on XBOX, watch 'Terminator: Sarah Conner Chronicles' on iPad2 then put iPhone on charger and go to sleep...

I´d say you could ditch these tasks w/ ease

I'd say you wouldn't want to miss Summer Glau as Cameron Philips...

cheers, Tom

[Bud Weiser]

...Summer Glau as Cameron Philips...

cheers, Tom

Would you please so kind translating this for me,- I´m german too ...

Bud

[siriusbliss]

Other than that I have no comment on what Apple may or may not be working on

G

They try to establish their own processors on their own platform,- that´s all.
If that will be fast enough and works ... (?)

IMO, the iPad is a cool toy even there are better tablet toys from Samsung.

Bud

Nope. iPads have higher quality control and manufacturing practices down to PCB level by far.
I know first hand.

[dante]

One thing I notice about iPad2 - the battery life is incredible. The recharge time is long as well, but way good battery life.

[braincell]

Samsung is expecting to sell half a billion phones this year. They have a new flexible screen. When my mp3 player died I bought a Samsung Galaxy Player. It is essentially a cell phone without cell phone service. I can use it to make Wifi calls through Google Voice for free with a third party app. I keep finding new uses for this thing. I will not be using it for gaming or for making music on. That is absurd. I have to say the sound quality is the best I have heard. Previous mp3 players I owned were not loud enough when plugged into my car aux at high speed.

The small Kindle (eInk) battery lasts for 1 month and costs $69. That is tempting. Some people say they will be free eventually, of course with a one year subscription fee. I wonder if public libraries will survive.

[dante]

...Summer Glau as Cameron Philips...

cheers, Tom

Would you please so kind translating this for me,- I´m german too ...

Bud

Cameron is an female shaped AI in the "Terminator: Sarah Conner Chronicles" series (aired by ProSieben in Germany).

Cameron

botgirl-cameron.jpg (25.3 KiB) Viewed 2495 times

Does this translate well into German for your taste ?

[Cochise]

IMHO desktop computers share a lot of technologies with smaller devices, so the ones will anyway benefit from the evolution of the others, sooner or later. Solid state memories evolution and diffusion could end up in new architectures using very very fast SSD, cache instead of RAM chips... kind of a single bus for long term storage and runtime memory.
But of course, a drop in demand can likely extend times and increase prices.
I'm not a computer engineer though, not sure the way I made out is really praticable. The 8086 architecture is proving to be very conservative; new ways are not easy to open even if components technology has moved far from the beginnings; radical changes also involve software, OSs and applications...
BTW... four stroke cycle engine is here since half of XIX century (the only variation I know is the Wankel type) and it runs faster and faster, even if improvements to its thermic efficiency clash with thighter bonds... bonds related to phisical laws more than economical/organizational in this case though.